美国华人网FuninUSA_唐人社区_北美华人论坛:找礼品卡,找折扣,找报价,找工作,找内推,找项目,找股票

 找回密码
 立即注册
  • 澳洲传说中“巨猫”被目击:通体黑色
  • 2米长巨型响尾蛇与喵星人放一起后:竟相安无事
  • 珠峰大本营终于淘汰发电机:全部接入国家电网
  • 再也不怕堵了!史上最帅汽车:可垂直起飞
  • 日本天空惊现巨型十字架 网友:EVA来了!
  • 美国黄石公园美丽白狼神秘重伤:忍痛安乐死
  • 时速2000km!中国世界首条海底超级高铁呼之欲出
  • 飞鸟钻入引擎:美国国宝级轰炸机烧成灰烬
  • 图中竟然藏了一条蛇:网友找疯了
  • 科学家发现毛毛虫可完美降解塑料袋:效率极高
  • 法国大选是否能点燃美国市场?
  • 100天了,特朗普的“三驾马车”还能走多远
  • 对于石油,投资者难得保持一致意见:看跌
  • 对于IBM,巴菲特到底是怎么想的?
  • 福特汽车销量“遇冷”
  • 阿里巴巴增长超越市场预期,阿里云会进一步扩大
  • IBM:它会从小的事情重新开始
  • 在自动驾驶汽车技术的推动下,苹果更加强大
  • 标普500低于50日平均移动线,接下来将是横向盘整时期
  • 今年5大股票支撑着市场
Logo1-800-PetMeds Free Shipping $49Take $10 Off Your First Order w/code: SAVE10 - 234 x 60
ASICS AmericaPagoda Piercing Banner 234x60Sierra Trading Post
搜索
查看: 3047|回复: 2

谈股论金 -Twitter Is Way Overpriced- 唐人社区|北美华人论坛|外贸论坛

[复制链接]

25

主题

91

帖子

141

积分

注册会员

Rank: 2

积分
141
QQ
发表于 2016-9-13 17:39:08 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
分享到:
{$content}

唐人社区-北美华人论坛-外贸论坛-谈股论金版-Twitter Is Way Overpriced


  Stock
标 题: Twitter Is Way Overpriced


If Microsoft Overpaid for LinkedIn, Then Twitter Is Way Overpriced
Twitter is trading for 5 times the multiple Microsoft paid for LinkedIn

Adam Levy
Sep 9, 2016 at 1:06PM

When Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) decided to plunk down $26.2 billion for
LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD), most analysts agreed it was a steep price for the
Redmond-based company to pay. Not only was it a 50% premium over the stock's
price at the time, it was 91 times the company's trailing EBITDA through
the first quarter of the year. When LinkedIn reported its second quarter
earnings results, it revealed Microsoft paid just 63 times the company's
trailing-12-month EBITDA.

Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) is now the biggest social media company tied to
acquisition rumors, and those rumors seem to be the only positive factor
driving up the company's stock price. Co-founder Evan Williams recently made
a comment, or lack thereof, that led investors to believe the board was
more open to considering a buyout, sending the stock higher last week.

But Twitter already trades for a premium valuation. Any company looking to
acquire it would likely have to fork out even more than the company's
current $13.7 billion market cap. At its current price, however, Twitter is
trading for almost 300 times its trailing-12-month EBITDA. Does Twitter
really deserve 5 times the multiple Microsoft paid for LinkedIn?
A look at the numbers

Both Twitter and LinkedIn use considerable amounts of stock-based
compensation to make their adjusted EBITDA margins look good. They aren't
the only tech companies that use stock-based compensation and report non-
GAAP earnings results, but they're both heavily reliant on it. Here's what
Twitter and LinkedIn's EBITDA look like over the trailing 12 months with and
without stock-based compensation included.

Company


Adjusted EBITDA


Stock-Based Compensation


EBITDA


Market Value

Twitter


$688.6 million


$642.8 million


$45.9 million


$13.7 billion

LinkedIn


$971.1 million


$552.7 million


$418.4 million


$26.2 billion

Data source: Company financial reports.

Nearly all of Twitter's adjusted EBITDA comes from discounting stock-based
compensation, while it accounts for more than half of LinkedIn's. These are
real expenses even if they're not cash expenses, and thus need to be
considered by investors.

Using adjusted EBITDA numbers, Twitter's EBITDA multiple is just 20 times
and LinkedIn's is 27 times. But those numbers skyrocket when you factor in
stock-based compensation. With Twitter using more stock-based compensation
than LinkedIn, it becomes significantly more expensive than Microsoft's
latest acquisition using an EBITDA multiple.
Will Twitter grow faster?

The typical reason the market assigns a higher earnings multiple to one
stock over another is that it expects the higher-priced company to grow its
earnings faster. Twitter is finally posting positive EBITDA numbers in 2016,
and analysts think there's plenty of growth ahead. With an EBITDA of just $
45.9 million over the last 12 months, it'd take less of an absolute increase
to quadruple its EBITDA than LinkedIn's EBITDA, which is 9 times the size.

But analysts are expecting LinkedIn's EBITDA to grow to $1 billion this year
, nearly 4 times its EBITDA last year. Twitter, by comparison, expects an
adjusted EBITDA margin between 26% and 27% for the year. With analysts
expecting total revenue around $2.56 billion for 2016, that works out to $
678 million in adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of Twitter's guidance.

That's actually a decrease in adjusted EBITDA from the trailing 12 months,
but that's due to less reliance on stock-based compensation. Stock-based
compensation expense fell 11% through the first half of the year.

But Twitter is coming up on the anniversary of a big round of job cuts, and
its third-quarter forecast for stock-based compensation ($165 million to $
175 million) is mostly above what it paid out in the third quarter last year
($165.9 million).

What's more, Twitter is forecasting another quarter of negative EBITDA, with
stock-based compensation expense outpacing its adjusted EBITDA expectations
($135 million to $150 million). With little revenue growth, little EBITDA
margin expansion, and little change in stock-based compensation, there's no
reason to believe Twitter will show nearly as much growth in EBITDA as
LinkedIn.

The potential might be there, but the company still isn't executing on that
potential. With the stock currently trading around 300 times its EBITDA, it
seems way overpriced compared to LinkedIn. And remember, the LinkedIn
acquisition was deemed quite expensive.
--

回复 百度谷歌雅虎搜狗搜搜有道360奇虎

举报

11

主题

205

帖子

224

积分

注册会员

Rank: 2

积分
224
QQ
发表于 2016-9-13 20:39:43 | 显示全部楼层
Stock
标  题: Twitter Is Way Overpriced


If Microsoft Overpaid for LinkedIn, Then Twitter Is Way Overpriced
Twitter is trading for 5 times the multiple Microsoft paid for LinkedIn

Adam Levy
Sep 9, 2016 at 1:06PM

When Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) decided to plunk down $26.2 billion for
LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD), most analysts agreed it was a steep price for the
Redmond-based company to pay. Not only was it a 50% premium over the stock's
price at the time, it was 91 times the company's trailing EBITDA through
the first quarter of the year. When LinkedIn reported its second quarter
earnings results, it revealed Microsoft paid just 63 times the company's
trailing-12-month EBITDA.

Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) is now the biggest social media company tied to
acquisition rumors, and those rumors seem to be the only positive factor
driving up the company's stock price. Co-founder Evan Williams recently made
a comment, or lack thereof, that led investors to believe the board was
more open to considering a buyout, sending the stock higher last week.

But Twitter already trades for a premium valuation. Any company looking to
acquire it would likely have to fork out even more than the company's
current $13.7 billion market cap. At its current price, however, Twitter is
trading for almost 300 times its trailing-12-month EBITDA. Does Twitter
really deserve 5 times the multiple Microsoft paid for LinkedIn?
A look at the numbers

Both Twitter and LinkedIn use considerable amounts of stock-based
compensation to make their adjusted EBITDA margins look good. They aren't
the only tech companies that use stock-based compensation and report non-
GAAP earnings results, but they're both heavily reliant on it. Here's what
Twitter and LinkedIn's EBITDA look like over the trailing 12 months with and
without stock-based compensation included.

Company
   

Adjusted EBITDA
   

Stock-Based Compensation
   

EBITDA
   

Market Value

Twitter
   

$688.6 million
   

$642.8 million
   

$45.9 million
   

$13.7 billion

LinkedIn
   

$971.1 million
   

$552.7 million
   

$418.4 million
   

$26.2 billion

Data source: Company financial reports.

Nearly all of Twitter's adjusted EBITDA comes from discounting stock-based
compensation, while it accounts for more than half of LinkedIn's. These are
real expenses even if they're not cash expenses, and thus need to be
considered by investors.

Using adjusted EBITDA numbers, Twitter's EBITDA multiple is just 20 times
and LinkedIn's is 27 times. But those numbers skyrocket when you factor in
stock-based compensation. With Twitter using more stock-based compensation
than LinkedIn, it becomes significantly more expensive than Microsoft's
latest acquisition using an EBITDA multiple.
Will Twitter grow faster?

The typical reason the market assigns a higher earnings multiple to one
stock over another is that it expects the higher-priced company to grow its
earnings faster. Twitter is finally posting positive EBITDA numbers in 2016,
and analysts think there's plenty of growth ahead. With an EBITDA of just $
45.9 million over the last 12 months, it'd take less of an absolute increase
to quadruple its EBITDA than LinkedIn's EBITDA, which is 9 times the size.

But analysts are expecting LinkedIn's EBITDA to grow to $1 billion this year
, nearly 4 times its EBITDA last year. Twitter, by comparison, expects an
adjusted EBITDA margin between 26% and 27% for the year. With analysts
expecting total revenue around $2.56 billion for 2016, that works out to $
678 million in adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of Twitter's guidance.

That's actually a decrease in adjusted EBITDA from the trailing 12 months,
but that's due to less reliance on stock-based compensation. Stock-based
compensation expense fell 11% through the first half of the year.

But Twitter is coming up on the anniversary of a big round of job cuts, and
its third-quarter forecast for stock-based compensation ($165 million to $
175 million) is mostly above what it paid out in the third quarter last year
($165.9 million).

What's more, Twitter is forecasting another quarter of negative EBITDA, with
stock-based compensation expense outpacing its adjusted EBITDA expectations
($135 million to $150 million). With little revenue growth, little EBITDA
margin expansion, and little change in stock-based compensation, there's no
reason to believe Twitter will show nearly as much growth in EBITDA as
LinkedIn.

The potential might be there, but the company still isn't executing on that
potential. With the stock currently trading around 300 times its EBITDA, it
seems way overpriced compared to LinkedIn. And remember, the LinkedIn
acquisition was deemed quite expensive.
--

26

主题

1238

帖子

2448

积分

金牌会员

Rank: 6Rank: 6

积分
2448
QQ
发表于 2016-9-26 13:58:20 | 显示全部楼层
发发呆,回回帖,工作结束~
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

美国华人网|唐人社区|什么值得买FunInUSA.net发布的谈股论金 -Twitter Is Way Overpriced- 唐人社区|北美华人论坛|外贸论坛帖子由网友提供或转载于网络,若发布的谈股论金 -Twitter Is Way Overpriced- 唐人社区|北美华人论坛|外贸论坛侵犯了您的权益,请联系我们.
Sasa.com

Copyright ©2011 FunInUSA.NET All Right Reserved.  Powered by Discuz! X3.0 小黑屋

本站信息均由会员发表,不代表美国华人网FunInUSA|唐人社区的立场,如侵犯了您的权利请发帖投诉  技术支持: 美国华人网FunInUSA|唐人社区

安全联盟认证 安全联盟认证

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表